![]() Hindsight Bias can be something like “When I had to decide whether I wanted to sell the company, I made the right choice, and I knew it at the time.” This instilled a heavy dose of realism in my thinking.” To clarify, narrative fallacy can be something like “I made the right move because I come from a small town that is uniquely suspicious of wishful thinking. Narrative Fallacy and Hindsight Bias applies to the founder himself who created a backstory to “explain” why things worked out, and in retrospect, knew that he made the right decision. ![]() Survivorship Bias applies to the journalist who “figured out” a relationship between hard times and success. I do not want to use these biases indiscriminately – Hindsight Bias, Availability Bias, Narrative Fallacy and Survivorship Bias apply to these stories in different ways.Īvailability Bias applies to the individual who extrapolates from the founder’s story that startup success is plausible. ![]() These stories and their effects have resulted in a cocktail of cognitive fallacies (the narrative fallacy, hindsight bias, availability bias, and others). The stories of rags-to-riches are so numerous, that one gets the impression that they are commonplace. ![]() The most innovative companies are often built during economic recessions. The founder of Whatsapp was an Eastern European immigrant to the U.S who survived on food stamps while building his business. In pop culture, we are constantly told about the person who overcame all odds. If you’re interested in exploring the darker parts of human psychology that most people ignore, read The Dichotomy of the Self. The End of Wisdom is the perfect book for anyone who wants to arm themselves against bullsh*t advice. For this reason, he took no notice of cold, hunger, discomfort, inconvenience, toil or shame if he could only live one day in ease and repose and he would always say-and as if it were a proverb-that after bad weather, good weather must follow, and that during the good weather houses must be built for shelter in times of need. Perhaps wealth would have closed to him and his talent the path to excellence just as poverty had opened it up to him, but need spurred him on since he desired to rise from such a miserable and lowly position-if not perhaps to the summit and supreme height of excellence, then at least to a point where he could have enough to live on. And because he always had the dread of poverty before his eyes, he did things to make money which he probably would not have bothered to do had he not been forced to support himself. Wishing by means of his ability to attain some respectable rank, after leaving disastrous calamities behind in Perugia and coming to Florence, he remained there many months in poverty, sleeping in a chest, since he had no other bed he turned night into day, and with the greatest zeal continually applied himself to the study of his profession.Īfter painting had become second nature to him, Pietro’s only pleasure was always to be working in his craft and constantly to be painting. How beneficial poverty may sometimes be to those with talent, and how it may serve as a powerful goad to make them perfect or excellent in whatever occupation they might choose, can be seen very clearly in the actions of Pietro Perugino. The next issue is that it is not even realistic. Not many try to become heroes, and of those who try, not many succeed – an idea we will shortly return to. The price for the triumph is that man must descend into the underworld.īut upon closer inspection, the superlative “strong men, easy times” or “weak men, hard times” is not only optimistic – it is equally pessimistic, if not more so. The boon can come in the form of knowledge, or treasure, or periodic peace. The hero is at first weak and underdeveloped, but through a series of trials with difficult adversaries, he develops strength and skill, which he uses to bring a boon to his society, as outlined in multiple myths by Campbell in The Hero with A Thousand Faces. The weak man is the prerequisite of the strong man, and therefore, of the hero. Without tough times, there would be no redemptive man. It not only makes sense to us, but it is deeply meaningful. Whether we think of an individual’s life, or the life of a society, we feel a compulsion to define it according to such a narrative structure. If such a cycle did not exist, then there would not be any relationship between human experiences in the past, present, and future. ![]() One could be tempted to say that things must be this way – it is the circle of life. The quote is from a post-apocalyptic novel called “Those Who Remain” by the author G. “Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” ![]()
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